Strategic planning is more important than ever these days, but how exactly do you go about doing it? “Strategy is basically about identifying where you want to go and how you want to get there,” he explains. “Sometimes, your goals will stay put. But if 90% of what you do is reliant on the U.S. market, it’s difficult if not impossible to stay the course right now. And if your business has been disrupted by these circumstances, you can be sure your competitors are in the same situation,” King adds. Nobody can foresee the unforeseeable, but there are some tools you can use to steady the rudder in rougher seas. Scenario-based planning is one of them. With a scenario chart, you can plot out various ways forward and indicate how you would react in response to each situation if it were to materialize.

King cites the tariff war as an example, where we have seen one about-face after another from the Trump administration. This has created an instable climate for business leaders. “In this case, it’s important to play this scenario through: How would we react if the tariffs were implemented? How would we react if they were lifted? What would happen if our suppliers couldn’t make their deliveries?”

The scenario method came into prominence during World War II to help in determining the likely outcomes of a given situation and prepare accordingly. “Working backward from the results we hope to achieve, we can develop several different scenarios pertaining to suppliers, employees and markets.” The idea isn’t to plan for every possible eventuality; it’s about identifying the most plausible sequence of events and working around them. “Otherwise, you risk becoming paralyzed by the sheer number of possibilities, rather than remaining agile,” he says.

This type of exercise also helps in coming up with worst-case scenarios and taking concrete action to mitigate undesirable consequences. “Some businesses won’t have any choice but to shut down. But sometimes that’s because a lack of planning led them there,” he explains. “If you hit a wall, there may be alternatives you can turn to to keep your organization alive. Maybe the solution is to sell the business. Maybe it’s a change of direction.”

Making decisions like these takes a healthy dose of managerial courage. King stresses that this is a vital skill that effective leaders need to have — and hone. “Teams aren’t looking for blind optimism from their managers. They want honesty and clear explanations about where the organization will go from here. Building and maintaining trust with your employees is crucial, even if it’s entirely possible that they’ll be gone in six months.” Managing human resources effectively can be a true challenge at times like these, but it’s one that cannot be overlooked.

The other key consideration is cash flow. “In each of your scenarios, you have to ensure you have enough funds at your disposal to keep your bills paid,” says King. “Remember: the idea here is not to thrive; it’s to keep yourself afloat.”